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Housing Markets Readjust

Written by Ian Stewart on Monday, 20 August 2012 09:58
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The last decade's global housing boom turned to bust in 2007. House prices have fallen in most western economies and have collapsed in the US and Ireland. Indeed, US housing is now 30% cheaper than in 2007 while Irish house prices have almost halved.

* Most other countries have not seen such a sharp decline in property prices. According to the Economist, housing is still significantly overvalued in several countries, especially in Australia, Singapore, France, Sweden, Spain and Netherlands.

* In the UK, the Economist estimates housing to be 26% overvalued relative to rents, although prices have shrunk by a tenth since the crash. With low interest rates limiting foreclosures and supporting interest payments on mortgages, UK house prices have proved relatively resilient.

* However, the pressure on house prices has intensified over the last twelve months. With a renewed recession in Europe and rising financial uncertainty, property prices in peripheral Europe have begun to slide. The slowdown in the West has also hit house prices in emerging Asia.

* In more than half of the 21 countries tracked by the Economist, house prices have fallen over the last year. With housing still quite expensive in most of Europe and Oceania, the risk is that prices will drift lower.

* Housing was one of the big bubbles of the boom era. Falls in house prices are a painful part of rebalancing national economies. In this process, the US has made significant progress.

Although US house prices continue to fall, the US housing market is beginning to show signs of life. The Economist's data suggest that US houses are 12% undervalued relative to rents making them attractive targets for homebuyers. US housing starts hit a 4-year high in June. It is perhaps in anticipation of this turnaround that shares in homebuilders have risen 55% this year.

German housing also looks cheap relative to long-term yardsticks. Germany's mix of low housing valuations, a buoyant economy and cheap financing is unique in the industrialised world. Although house prices have begun to edge up there, German housing remains the most undervalued in Europe relative to incomes and rents.

Low rates of owner occupation, low levels of  housing market turnover and conservative lending policies on the part of banks have acted as a drag on German house prices. A cursory search on property sellers' websites reveals that a similar 2-bed flat situated 5 kms from the city centre costs three times as much in London as in Berlin!

Of course, prices and affordability vary wildly by location. According to an annual housing affordability survey run by Robert Breugmann, a professor at the University of Illinois, London is the seventh least affordable housing market in the world with the average house priced 6.7 times the median income of Londoners. At the other end of the scale is America's auto-hub Detroit with houses priced 1.4 times median incomes.

In large cosmopolitan cities such as London, which see significant interest from foreign buyers, exchange rate fluctuations also play a key role in determining property prices.

A depreciating currency makes a nation's assets cheaper for foreign buyers. Over the last few years, the depreciation of the sterling has made British housing cheaper for most foreigners. For a Chinese buyer, who has seen the yuan appreciate against the dollar and the pound, property in London is now 35% cheaper than in 2007. The rising yuan has, on the other hand, inflated property prices in Beijing and Shanghai for people living outside China.

Five years on from the start of the financial crisis, housing in much of the industrialised world still looks pricey.

Last modified on Monday, 20 August 2012 15:17
Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart is a Partner and Chief Economist at Deloitte where he advises clients on macroeconomics and financial markets developments. Ian devised and runs Deloitte's quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, writes the Monday Briefing and comments on the economic scene in the media.

Before joining Deloitte Ian spent 12 years as Chief Economist for Europe at the US investment bank, Merrill Lynch in London. He previously worked as Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for Social Security, the Rt Hon Tony Newton, as Head of Economics in the Conservative Party’s Research Department and as an economist with the Confederation of British Industry in London.

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DISCLAIMER

© Deloitte LLP 2012. All rights reserved.

Ian's articles contain general information only and they are not intended to be comprehensive or to provide professional or investment advice. It is not a substitute for such professional advice and should not be relied upon or used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect you or your business. This briefing is not directed to, or intended for distribution or use in, any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be prohibited. To the extent permitted by law, Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.

This communication is from Deloitte LLP, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675. Its registered office is 2, New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ('DTTL'), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.

Opinions, conclusions and other information in all articles which have not been delivered by way of the business of Deloitte LLP are neither given nor endorsed by it.

Website: www.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing

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