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News & Features Finance Central Banks to the Rescue

Central Banks to the Rescue

Written by Ian Stewart on Monday, 17 September 2012 09:33
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Global equity markets have been heading up since June on the hope that central banks were planning something big to boost growth.

This time policymakers have not disappointed.

Ten days ago the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a programme to buy, without limit, government bonds of at-risk countries in the euro area. The creation of this theoretically infinite source of demand for government debt exceeded market expectations. Fears that the Single Currency might fail have eased and borrowing costs for governments in southern Europe have dropped sharply.

Last Thursday the US Federal Reserve announced its third programme of Quantitative Easing since 2008. By buying mortgage backed securities the Fed aims to drive down interest rates and push liquidity into the US economy. The spending is open-ended and will carry on until the US jobs market improves.

The unlimited nature of the interventions by the ECB and the Fed surprised and cheered financial markets. Since the ECB announcement, on September 6th, global equity markets have risen over 5%.

Financial markets like what has been announced but the hard economic data remain pretty downbeat. In recent weeks economists have continued to cut their European growth forecasts for 2013.

Much now hangs on whether the actions of the latest actions by the ECB and the Fed will boost activity.

The ECB's move reduces borrowing costs for governments and buys the euro area more time. But the need for deep change in the peripheral economies remains.

History shows that economies can achieve such change. Ireland has made significant headway in reducing costs and raising exports. But the pace of change elsewhere in Europe's periphery is slower and more erratic. These countries still face a long grind, shrinking public spending, reforming their economies and squeezing wages.

America is in a stronger position than the euro area. The US has benefited from a weaker dollar and the Fed's aggressive response to the financial crisis. US housing no longer looks expensive and the US seems to be ahead of Europe in strengthening its banks.

Investors also see US government debt as a safe haven from the troubles of the euro area. Yet America has fiscal challenges of its own. As a share of GDP its public sector deficit is as big as Spain's.

There is no consensus on how the US should cut its deficit. Without a new Congressional agreement a series of automatic tax rises and spending cuts are due to take effect next January. These measures could remove the equivalent of 5% of GDP from the economy and plunge the US into recession in 2013.

This represents a real risk both to the US and to the global economy. Last week's announcement of QE3 looks like an attempt to lend impetus to what has been a lacklustre and erratic US recovery ahead of the looming fiscal cliff.

The actions of the ECB and the Fed have buoyed equity markets. The real test is whether they are sufficient to boost confidence and persuade companies and consumers to spend.

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart is a Partner and Chief Economist at Deloitte where he advises clients on macroeconomics and financial markets developments. Ian devised and runs Deloitte's quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, writes the Monday Briefing and comments on the economic scene in the media.

Before joining Deloitte Ian spent 12 years as Chief Economist for Europe at the US investment bank, Merrill Lynch in London. He previously worked as Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for Social Security, the Rt Hon Tony Newton, as Head of Economics in the Conservative Party’s Research Department and as an economist with the Confederation of British Industry in London.

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DISCLAIMER

© Deloitte LLP 2012. All rights reserved.

Ian's articles contain general information only and they are not intended to be comprehensive or to provide professional or investment advice. It is not a substitute for such professional advice and should not be relied upon or used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect you or your business. This briefing is not directed to, or intended for distribution or use in, any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be prohibited. To the extent permitted by law, Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.

This communication is from Deloitte LLP, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675. Its registered office is 2, New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ('DTTL'), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.

Opinions, conclusions and other information in all articles which have not been delivered by way of the business of Deloitte LLP are neither given nor endorsed by it.

Website: www.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing

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