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Corporate Strategies for Uncertainty

Written by Ian Stewart on Monday, 08 October 2012 10:48
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The third quarter Deloitte Survey of UK Chief Financial Officers has been published this morning. Today's edition marks the fifth anniversary of the CFO Survey. The survey provides a striking picture of the attitudes of the UK's largest corporates to risk, strategy and financing.

133 CFOs, including 35 at FTSE100 companies, took part in the survey between 11th and 26th September. Respondent companies account for 34% of the quoted UK equity market. The full survey report is available at:

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/research-and-intelligence/deloitte-research-uk/the-deloitte-cfo-survey/2967571bb303a310VgnVCM1000003156f70aRCRD.htm

CFO optimism has made up some of the record losses sustained in the second quarter as the euro crisis intensified. Spirits seem to have been lifted by the recent promise of more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve to support growth and from the European Central Bank (ECB) to strengthen the single currency.

Yet while central bank activism helped fuel a strong, 16% rally in global equity markets between June and mid September CFOs take a more cautious longer term view.

CFOs believe an unpredictable economic and financial environment is the single biggest factor constraining investment. 90% of CFOs rate the economic uncertainties facing their business as being above normal and 43% expect the UK's recession to run on or recur within the next two years.

So, despite a pickup in business confidence, CFOs have continued to shift to more defensive balance sheet strategies, a process that has been underway since the start of the year. Increasing cash flow, cutting costs and reducing leverage are stronger priorities than at any time in the last two years; conversely capital spending is a lower priority than at any time in the last two years.

Recent announcements from the ECB have eased, but not dispelled, CFOs' worries about the single currency. On average CFOs see a 27% probability of one or more countries leaving the single currency in the next 12 months. CFOs rate the weakness of the economies of the euro area as second only to macroeconomic uncertainty in its dampening effect on business investment.

While the macroeconomic risks abound, the internal story for large companies looks pretty healthy, partly because of a favourable financing environment. Credit is rated as being cheaper than at any time in the last five years and financing costs are expected to stay low. For the large companies surveyed the cost and the availability of external finance rate as weak constraints on investment. CFOs report that long term growth in demand for their products and services is providing support for capital spending. It is striking too, that, despite worries about growth, only one in five CFOs expect revenues to decline over the next year.

The CFO Survey reveals that big corporates are increasingly focussing on managing and mitigating economic risks. The challenge is to do so and, at the same time, to capitalise on strong corporate balance sheets to build new sources of growth.

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart is a Partner and Chief Economist at Deloitte where he advises clients on macroeconomics and financial markets developments. Ian devised and runs Deloitte's quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, writes the Monday Briefing and comments on the economic scene in the media.

Before joining Deloitte Ian spent 12 years as Chief Economist for Europe at the US investment bank, Merrill Lynch in London. He previously worked as Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for Social Security, the Rt Hon Tony Newton, as Head of Economics in the Conservative Party’s Research Department and as an economist with the Confederation of British Industry in London.

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DISCLAIMER

© Deloitte LLP 2012. All rights reserved.

Ian's articles contain general information only and they are not intended to be comprehensive or to provide professional or investment advice. It is not a substitute for such professional advice and should not be relied upon or used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect you or your business. This briefing is not directed to, or intended for distribution or use in, any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be prohibited. To the extent permitted by law, Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.

This communication is from Deloitte LLP, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675. Its registered office is 2, New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ('DTTL'), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.

Opinions, conclusions and other information in all articles which have not been delivered by way of the business of Deloitte LLP are neither given nor endorsed by it.

Website: www.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing

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