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News & Features Finance The Helicopter Money Question

The Helicopter Money Question

Written by Ian Stewart on Monday, 29 October 2012 09:59
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Last week's GDP figures show that the UK economy has emerged from recession. It grew by 1.0% in the third quarter, the fastest quarterly pace in almost five years and a stronger reading than expected.

However, stripping out the effects of one-off factors such as the Olympics, growth was closer to 0.3% - still positive, but hardly strong.

Immediate prospects for the UK economy are mixed. The consumer sector is showing signs of growth. But the economy faces strong headwinds - from the euro crisis, the squeeze on public spending and a fragile financial sector.

Earlier this month, Lord Adair Turner, chairman of the UK's Financial Services Authority and a leading candidate to be the next governor of the Bank of England, raised doubts over growth the pace of the UK recovery. He warned that the process of debt reduction for businesses, households, banks and the government could depress growth for many more years.

The question that policymakers continue to grapple with is what, if anything, can be done to boost growth?

Lord Turner's believes that the stimulative effects of quantitative easing (QE), may already be waning. He advocates more radical monetary policy and hinted that the government should consider cancelling government debt acquired by the Bank through QE.

This is a very radical step, one which blurs the line between monetary and fiscal policy. The eminent monetarist economist, Milton Friedman, likened such a policy to dropping freshly-minted money from a helicopter.

In a speech last week Sir Mervyn King, the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, acknowledged that the beneficial effects of QE have probably diminished.

However, Sir Mervyn rejected the notion that the Bank of England should write off government debt. He warned that such policy would prevent the Bank from reversing the current expansionary policy when the need arose – and by doing so it would damage the Bank's credibility and risk higher inflation down the line.

There is an even more fundamental difference of opinion at work here. For Sir Mervyn advanced economies may have to accept more subdued economic growth as the price to be paid for a necessary adjustment in asset prices and private sector debt. Lord Turner, by contrast, believes that more radical monetary policy could help boost growth.

Keynesian economists, such as the Nobel laureate, Paul Krugman, also subscribe to the idea that more can be done to support growth. For Keynesians debt-financed government spending holds the key. Most Western governments, by contrast, are focussed on reducing debts and trimming public spending. Yet it is a sign of the times that even the fiscally orthodox IMF has recently suggested that the UK government could slow the pace of spending cuts in order to bolster activity.

Outright cancellation of government debt or a shift to growth through public spending are very radical options. The current policy consensus rules out such options out and believes that UK growth is likely to be slow and choppy for quite some time to come. As Sir Mervyn King noted last week, "there are no short-cuts to the necessary adjustment in our economy".

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart is a Partner and Chief Economist at Deloitte where he advises clients on macroeconomics and financial markets developments. Ian devised and runs Deloitte's quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, writes the Monday Briefing and comments on the economic scene in the media.

Before joining Deloitte Ian spent 12 years as Chief Economist for Europe at the US investment bank, Merrill Lynch in London. He previously worked as Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for Social Security, the Rt Hon Tony Newton, as Head of Economics in the Conservative Party’s Research Department and as an economist with the Confederation of British Industry in London.

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DISCLAIMER

© Deloitte LLP 2012. All rights reserved.

Ian's articles contain general information only and they are not intended to be comprehensive or to provide professional or investment advice. It is not a substitute for such professional advice and should not be relied upon or used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect you or your business. This briefing is not directed to, or intended for distribution or use in, any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be prohibited. To the extent permitted by law, Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.

This communication is from Deloitte LLP, a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675. Its registered office is 2, New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ('DTTL'), a UK private company limited by guarantee, whose member firms are legally separate and independent entities. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.

Opinions, conclusions and other information in all articles which have not been delivered by way of the business of Deloitte LLP are neither given nor endorsed by it.

Website: www.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing

comments  

 
0 # Sarah Wright 2012-10-30 11:21
How do policymakers get there head around how to boost growth? Entrepreneurs should replace them! They are the ones supporting the economy after all
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